| Can you tell us a bit about your
background? |
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| In 1988, I graduated the University
of California, Santa Barbara with a degree in mathematics
and economics. From there I took and passed the requisite
11 examinations to become an accredited actuary. For the
last seven years, I have been working for the Social Security
Administration estimating the costs and benefits of congressional
legislation on the trust funds. As a fun side project,
I also tabulate the most popular baby names. Analyzing
the odds of the casino games started out as an amusement
after the actuary exams. This led to putting said analysis
on my web page, and since then, I have been refining and
adding to it as time permits. |
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| Can you really narrow "Luck" down
to a question of statistics and numbers? |
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"There are a multitude
of external factors I can blame my good or bad luck
on, but the truth is correlation does not mean causation."
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Yes, you can narrow down luck to
a question of statistics alone. According to the laws
of mathematics, a player is never predestined to win or
lose. The laws of mathematics also dictate that in the
short run your money will go up and down like a roller
coaster--it has nothing to do with your lucky rabbit's
foot. Every time I gamble with my wife I lose, but that
doesn't mean that I will avoid playing with her in the
future. There are a multitude of external factors I can
blame my good or bad luck on, but the truth is correlation
does not mean causation. |
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| Do you think that statistics kills
the fun by expelling the hope and thrill of casino gambling? |
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"I'm glad the casinos
have suckers to fatten their profits, otherwise
they would either go out of business or make the
rules more disadvantageous."
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Yes, for
some people statistics do take the fun out of gambling.
Gambling should be thought of as a form of entertainment
for which you must pay for. I have known a lot
of people who refuse to listen to my advice because they
don't want to lose their free will. They are paying a
higher price for their option to play as they please.
I realize my page is not for everybody--I'm only trying
to help the player who is willing to learn how to cut
down the house edge. The other players can do as they
please. I'm glad the casinos have suckers to fatten their
profits, otherwise they would either go out of business
or make the rules more disadvantageous. |
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| From a statistical point of view,
how do you explain a gambler's winning streak? |
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| Very easily. The sum of a series of
random variables is also a random variable of specific
mean and variance. If you were to chart enough of these
sums they would eventually take the form of a bell curve.
This is known in mathematics as the central limit theorem.
Try tossing a coin ten times. Most of the time you will
get about half and half between heads and tails but it
is to be expected that sometimes you end up on one tail
or the other of the bell curve and get all of one or the
other. |
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| In which games do players have a
statistical advantage over the house? Which games should
the discriminating player avoid? |
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"The most realistic ways
to gain an edge over the house are in blackjack
and video poker."
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The most realistic ways to gain
an edge over the house are in blackjack and video poker.
Blackjack can be beat by card counting and video poker
by hunting down rare machines that offer the most generous
pay tables and/or incentive programs. In either game,
you must follow proper strategy and have a healthy respect
for the odds. Either way--gaining a long term edge is
hard work. If it were easy everyone would be doing it.
I'm not going to say that every player should avoid games
with high edges like keno or nickel slots. Somebody with
a gambling budget of $5 may not have any better options
if they want to stretch their playing time as long as
possible. However, I will state emphatically that sucker
bets like the longshots in craps and the side bets in
Caribbean stud poker and let it ride should be avoided. |
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| Which games in the casino have the
best and the worst odds? |
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| The best (assuming proper strategy):
blackjack, craps, baccarat, video poker The worst: keno,
wheel of fortune, sic-bo. |
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| Gamblers talk with fervor about
different kinds of systems. There is always a new system
that seemingly works better than the old one. Is there
some truth to this? |
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| No. In the long run the ratio of money
lost to money bet will always approach the same constant
on the same game. All systems either trade a lot of small
wins for a few huge losses, or vise versa. A player may
prefer one system to another, but in the end the results
will average out no matter what system he plays. |
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| What is your favorite place to play? |
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| Binion's Horseshoe in downtown Las
Vegas, despite the fact that they no longer allow me to
play blackjack there. Great atmosphere, great rules. |
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| What advice would you give the inexperienced
casinogoer? |
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| Seek out good advice before you go.
Study one or two games well and play conservatively and
according to the best odds. |
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| What is your view of Internet casinos? |
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| I have yet to wager one penny on an
Internet casino. For me, it simply wouldn't be as fun
as the real thing. I have no problem with others playing
them as long as they are in control of themselves and
not maxing out their credit cards. Personally, I have
done some work for Casino Curacao developing games and
have no moral dilemma about it. |
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| What is you opinion of the Kyl Bill? |
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| To be honest with you, I don't have
a strong opinion on it. Even it becomes a law it will
likely still be fought in the courts for years and enforcement
would either be overlooked or prohibitively difficult
and expensive. My basic philosophy on politics is to let
people do as they please as long as they aren't hurting
anybody besides themselves. |
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